COT Report — Positioning in Energy and Metals
Crude is rallying without the speculators; gold remains the most crowded long in the panel
Executive Summary
▸ The crude rally is not speculator-driven. As of 14 July, Managed Money was net long WTI-Physical (NYMEX) by just 61,974 contracts, equal to 3.3% of open interest, and down 2,067 contracts on the week. On the ICE WTI contract Managed Money was actually net short by 24,220 contracts, having added 8,531 shorts in seven days.
▸ Meanwhile the price exploded. WTI closed Friday 17 July at roughly $82.47 (+4.0% on the session), for a weekly gain of over 14% from around $70 at the start of the month, on the military escalation between the United States and Iran and the paralysis of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
▸ Gold: the most crowded long in the panel, precisely as its macro driver turns. Non-Commercials remain net long by 186,682 contracts, or 48.7% of open interest — well beyond the 30% bullish-extreme threshold — with a long/short ratio of 5.6 to 1. The weekly cut was a mere 7,564 contracts: no capitulation, while the price broke below $4,000.
▸ Silver is cleaner than gold. Speculative net long at 25,074 contracts (23.9% of OI) after eight consecutive weekly price declines, with the gold/silver ratio above 71, near the top of its two-year range. Copper is inert: net long unchanged at 64,385 contracts, with the rise in open interest almost entirely in spreads.
▸ The central asymmetry. The energy shock is fuelling an aggressive Fed repricing — the market now prices roughly a 50% probability of a hike in September — which hits precious metals exactly where positioning is heaviest and supports crude exactly where positioning is lightest.
1. Context: supply shock and a Fed turning hawkish
The week ending 17 July was dominated by a single factor: the military escalation between the United States and Iran. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz, a sixth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian military targets, Tehran’s retaliation against US bases in neighbouring countries, and the interruption of Iraqi crude loadings at the Basra terminal following a drone strike have pushed the geopolitical premium on oil to its highest level of the year.
The macro reflex was immediate and counterintuitive for anyone watching only the inflation prints: US consumer and producer prices both fell in June, but import prices rose unexpectedly and, above all, expectations of energy-driven inflation pushed the rate curve in a restrictive direction. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called openly for a hike; Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he would support tightening if inflation failed to improve near term. The market now assigns roughly a 50% probability to a September rate increase.
The cross-asset result is a clean bifurcation: energy sharply higher, precious and industrial metals under pressure from real rates. COT positioning says the futures market was, as of 14 July, positioned exactly the other way round.
2. Energy — the petroleum complex
Disaggregated report, futures only, positions as of 14 July 2026. Net = Long − Short (spreading excluded).
Contract Open Interest Managed Money net % OI Δ week Long/Short WTI-Physical (NYMEX, 067651) 1,875,496 +61,974 3.3% −2,067 1.52x Crude Oil WTI (ICE Europe, 067411) 791,680 −24,220 −3.1% −8,803 0.17x Brent Last Day (NYMEX, 06765T) 247,129 +12,537 5.1% +181 21.8x Gasoline RBOB (NYMEX, 111659) 324,652 +68,725 21.2% −2,524 6.03x NY Harbor ULSD (NYMEX, 022651) 262,842 +10,705 4.1% +5,919 1.42x
Key insight: WTI gained over 14% in a week with Managed Money net long at 3.3% of open interest and shrinking. A rally of this magnitude built on such light speculative positioning has, by definition, no long overhang to work off: the potential fuel is the rebuilding of length by CTAs and macro funds, not its liquidation. This is the opposite reading to an exhaustion top.
The category structure on WTI
On the NYMEX contract the breakdown as of 14 July is as follows: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User long 700,107 against short 300,809, hence net long 399,298 (21.3% of OI); Swap Dealers long 92,414 against short 576,800, hence net short 484,386 (−25.8% of OI); Managed Money net long 61,974; Other Reportables essentially flat at +709.
One point flagged transparently: a configuration in which the producer/merchant segment is structurally net long and swap dealers are massively net short is unusual relative to the contract’s typical shape. The same setup, however, appears on WTI ICE Europe (+60,007) and on WTI Houston, so it is not a single-week artefact. Before building any directional thesis on it, it should be checked against the multi-year history.
The signal from refined products
RBOB gasoline is the only contract in the complex with genuinely heavy speculative positioning: net long 68,725 contracts, or 21.2% of open interest, with a long/short ratio of 6 to 1. In other words, speculators are more exposed to the refined product than to the crude. If the shock remains logistical in nature on crude — Hormuz, Basra — crack spread compression is the most immediate risk for anyone long gasoline, because the cost of the feedstock rises faster than the product price. Middle distillate (ULSD), by contrast, shows the only net increase in speculative length on the week, +5,919 contracts, consistent with diesel’s sensitivity to Middle Eastern flow disruptions.
3. Metals — precious and industrial
Legacy report, futures only, positions as of 14 July 2026. Net Non-Commercial = Long − Short (spreading excluded).
Contract Open Interest Non-Comm. net % OI Δ week Commercial net Long/Short Gold (COMEX, 088691) 383,689 +186,682 48.7% −7,564 −214,788 5.59x Silver (COMEX, 084691) 105,023 +25,074 23.9% −2,941 −42,597 3.24x Copper (COMEX, 085692) 259,873 +64,385 24.8% +113 −73,616 2.85x
Gold: extreme positioning against a price that is giving way
With a non-commercial net long at 48.7% of open interest, gold is by far the most crowded asset in the panel and sits well beyond the conventional 30% threshold that flags a bullish extreme. The picture is textbook contrarian: speculators at maximum length, commercials net short by 214,788 contracts (−56.0% of OI), and a price that broke below $4,000 during the week, closing Friday around $4,009.
The most important detail is the pace of the adjustment. Against a significant price decline, non-commercials cut their net position by only 7,564 contracts — 3.9% of the length — while total open interest actually rose by 11,913 contracts, with commercials adding 20,075 longs and 12,581 shorts. This is not capitulation; it is a position digging in. If the hawkish Fed repricing continues, the reservoir of longs still to be liquidated remains large and is the primary technical downside risk.
Silver: price destroyed, positioning already halved
Silver closed the week around $55.9–56.6 per ounce, an eighth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level since late November 2025, with the gold/silver ratio above 71 and near the top of its two-year range. Speculative positioning, however, sits at less than half gold’s relative intensity: 23.9% of open interest versus 48.7%. In terms of forced-liquidation risk, silver is markedly further through the cleansing process than gold — while remaining hostage to the same macro drivers, the dollar and long-end yields.
Copper: no signal
The non-commercial net long is essentially frozen (+113 contracts). Open interest rose by 8,925 contracts, but 6,146 of those were spreads: this is not directional positioning. The price, down to $6.22 per pound on Friday (−1.25%), remains caught between the rates headwind and supply-side support — power outages in Chile at the world’s largest producer, Antofagasta’s first-half output down 9.5% to 285,000 tonnes, and BHP’s warning on Chilean production for next year. Neutral on both sides.
4. Reading it as a whole
Lined up, the panel reveals an asymmetry with operational value. The energy shock is simultaneously the engine of the crude rally and the cause of the restrictive Fed repricing that is sinking precious metals. COT positioning, however, is misaligned with both directions: featherlight where flows are pushing up (crude), extremely heavy where flows are pushing down (gold).
Mind the lag. The snapshot is from Tuesday 14 July, when the escalation was already underway but the bulk of the move — Friday’s +4.0% and the close above $82 — had not yet happened. It is therefore reasonable to expect the 24 July report (data as of the 21st) to show a rebuilding of length in crude. The operational question is not whether, but how much: a jump in Managed Money net long beyond roughly 150,000 contracts would return WTI to normal positioning territory and materially reduce the residual fuel.
Where positioning supports the trend
WTI and Brent: minimal speculative length, ample room to rebuild if the Hormuz shock persists.
ULSD: the only contract with a net increase in length, consistent with diesel’s sensitivity to flow disruptions.
Where positioning is a risk
Gold: 48.7% of OI held by speculative longs with the price already through a psychological level. Risk of cascading liquidation.
RBOB: 21.2% of OI, the heaviest in the energy complex, exposed to crack compression.
5. Risk factors
De-escalation risk. A ceasefire or a credible reopening of Hormuz would send WTI back toward the $74–76 area quickly. In that case light positioning stops being an advantage and simply becomes an absence of support.
Data-lag risk. A three-day gap between snapshot and publication, in a week of double-digit price movement, leaves the COT picture partly obsolete by the time it is read.
Two-tailed Fed risk. If a September hike gets priced at 100%, precious metals still have room to fall; if energy subsides and core inflation prints stay soft, the repricing reverses and gold’s over-positioning ceases to be a problem.
Structural anomaly in WTI. The producer-net-long / swap-dealer-net-short configuration needs to be verified against the historical series before being read as a signal.
6. Monitoring plan
Friday 24 July (data as of the 21st): the scale of the Managed Money net long rebuild on WTI-Physical. Attention threshold: 150,000 contracts.
Gold: the weekly pace of non-commercial long cutting. A decline of more than 25,000 contracts in a single week would signal that real liquidation has begun.
Crack spread: divergence between RBOB net long and crude net long as a leading indicator of refining-margin stress.
Silver: stabilisation of the net long below 20,000 contracts as a possible marker of downside exhaustion.
Methodological note and limits of this edition
Primary sources. All positioning data come from the official CFTC Commitments of Traders reports published Friday 17 July 2026 with positions as of Tuesday 14 July 2026: the Disaggregated — Petroleum, Futures Only report for the energy complex and the Legacy — COMEX, Futures Only report for metals. Prices refer to closes and quotes of 17 July 2026.
Sources: CFTC, Commitments of Traders (Disaggregated and Legacy, Futures Only), 17 July 2026 · Investing.com, Trading Economics, FX Daily Report for prices and market context as of 17 July 2026.
Disclaimer: This document is produced by Macro Grisa for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, an investment solicitation, or a personalised recommendation. COT positioning data carry a structural three-day lag relative to publication.
© 2026 Macro Grisa · macrogrisa.com